Opinion: Russia’s Cynical Ceasefire Ploy: a Trap Ukraine Must Reject (2025)

Moscow’s demands, including Ukraine’s capitulation on territorial claims, demilitarization, and neutrality read like a Kremlin Christmas list. Unable to force these onerous terms by military force, Putin seeks to “win” Ukraine’s surrender at the bargaining table – a grotesque attempt not at diplomacy, but a paperwork project to realize Putin’s imperial ambitions.

Russia’s proposals are as absurd as they are sinister: Russia, the aggressor, demands that Ukraine disarm and cede sovereignty while Russian forces occupy 20% of its land. This is not negotiation; it’s extortion.

Kyiv Post has long chronicled Russia’s duplicity, and this latest gambit fits the pattern. Putin’s ceasefire rhetoric is a tactical feint, aimed at sowing division among Ukraine’s allies and buying desperately needed time to reconstitute his battered forces. As Putin’s army flounders, Russia’s economy is buckling under sanctions. And yet, Moscow’s terms betray no hint of weakness, only arrogance.

They seek to dictate Ukraine’s internal and external politics, demand Kyiv abandon its NATO aspirations, accept permanent Russian control over annexed territories, and put the Ukrainian nation forevermore in the position of a Russian vassal. Such terms don’t end wars; they guarantee future conflict.

Ukraine’s security, its borders, and its bright future as a democratic, economically vibrant state hinge on one undeniable truth: Russia must be defeated.

History shows appeasement emboldens tyrants. From Munich in 1938 to Crimea in 2014, half-measures and concessions only invite further aggression. A ceasefire that leaves Russian boots on Ukrainian soil or constrains Kyiv’s sovereignty is a victory for Putin, not peace.

A Russian-occupied Crimea will forever threaten Ukrainian prosperity and jeopardize Ukraine’s ability to export its produce and import materials necessary for its reconstruction.

Ukraine’s path to stability lies not in compromising with a regime that respects only strength but in driving Russian forces out – decisively, unequivocally and for good.

The United States, Ukraine’s most critical backer, has grown exasperated with Moscow’s games. Despite Washington’s enthusiasm to “make a deal,” this frustration was entirely predictable. Russia lies. Neither Putin nor his Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, can be trusted. And now Washington looks like a chump.

For years, Washington has been played – lured into diplomatic cul-de-sacs while Putin feeds hundreds of thousands of troops into his Special Military Operation. Russia uses threats and the promise of talks to manipulate, not resolve, in a continuing pattern of diplomatic “rope-a-dope.” For students of history – and of Russia – all of this was sadly predictable.

The Biden administration’s intermittent support was barely sufficient for Ukraine to keep the wolf at bay. Hesitant aid packages, half-delivered promises and restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US weapons actually prolonged the war, not shortened it. It’s time for a bold shift.

The novel solution is not new talks or sanctions – but a commitment to equip Ukraine to win. Journalist Alan Brewer at Indications & Warnings has been pitching this simple solution: Arm Ukraine.

Russia has shown it is not interested in anything other than its maximalist demands. It is not concerned with peace, but conquest.

Now is the time to provide Kyiv with an uninterrupted supply of the weapons and ammunition it needs to defeat Putin’s armies in the field. Give Ukraine the tools that Moscow dreads: long-range ATACMS, F-16s, artillery shells, and unrestricted permission to strike Russian targets.

Ukraine has proven its mettle – with adequate support, its forces can break Russia’s overstretched lines and reclaim its land. This is not escalation; it’s clarity.

Ukraine is in an existential battle. Lacking the ability to strike legitimate Ukrainian military targets, Russia lashes out at Ukraine’s civilian population. This is a symptom of Russian weakness – not strength. The corpse strewn ruins of Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariupol foretell what tender mercies a defeated Ukraine might expect from Russia.

Russia’s military is approaching exhaustion. Its combat effectiveness is abysmal. Its morale dangerously low, insubordination and even mutiny is common in Russian units. Using donkeys and stolen civilian vehicles for logistics leave Russian frontline troops undersupplied, vulnerable and constrained in their ability to maneuver.

Russian troops are so undertrained that they are only capable of conducting frontal assaults – in broad daylight. Their casualties are staggering – and unsustainable.

Russia’s military is hemorrhaging – at least 350,000 dead, as many as 600,000 wounded. In Putin’s “72-Hour Operation” Russia lost more tanks, 10,691, than the total number operated by all of NATO’s armies combined.

By any conventional measure, the Russian army is fighting itself to a frazzle. Russian tactics are incredibly wasteful – annihilating its own battalion-sized formations by sacrificing them in disjointed, daylight attacks, one platoon or company at a time.

It is time for Ukraine to push – and push hard – and the world will see the Russian army collapse, as they did during the Kherson and Kharkiv offensives, when brittle, broken Russian units abandoned their weapons and fled as many 60 kilometers in a single day.

These are facts: Russia cannot win this war – and never will. Another fact: Ukraine can only drive Russian troops out with the coordinated and continuing help of NATO – all of NATO – including the United States.

A Ukraine armed to victory sends a message: aggression will be punished, not rewarded. The cost of inaction is far steeper – prolonging a war that bleeds Ukraine and threatens to destabilize Europe. The time to act is now.

Ukraine’s future – secure borders, a thriving economy, a democratic beacon – depends on the defeat of Russia’s armed forces. The cudgel must be knocked from Putin’s hand.

The US must stop chasing Moscow’s mirages and bet on Kyiv’s courage.

Arm Ukraine. Let it win.

Only then will peace be more than a Kremlin trap.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.